Is there a significant exodus from blue states? Montana’s Gov. Greg Gianforte believes so. On November 17, after being appointed chair of the Republican Governors Association, Gianforte emphasized that states with Democratic governors were witnessing an outflow of residents, while those led by Republicans thrived, emphasizing lower costs, safer streets, and improved quality of life. The RGA is dedicated to turning more states Republican by 2026.
Montana’s migration data offers some support to Gianforte’s assertion, albeit with certain intricacies. From 2018 to 2022, 16,312 people relocated to Montana from states like Washington, California, Colorado, and Oregon—states governed by Democratic trifectas. During this period, a total of 47,165 individuals moved to Montana, according to U.S. Census data.
Other significant contributors include Republican trifectas like Idaho, Florida, Wyoming, Texas, and North Dakota, collectively accounting for 9,108 new residents. Arizona, with its Democratic governor and Republican legislature, added 1,637 residents to Montana’s population.
Population size and proximity play roles in migration patterns. Washington, with 8 million people and close proximity, sent 5,106 new residents to Montana. California, the most populous state at 39.6 million, contributed 5,103 newcomers, underscoring its role as a major source of out-migration. New York, Illinois, New Jersey, and Massachusetts also rank high in net out-migration.
There’s evidence suggesting Montana newcomers often lean Republican. Data from the election service L2 shows three Republican voters moved to Montana for every two Democratic voters from October 2008 to May 2024. This data was compiled from states requiring party declaration upon voter registration. Gaps exist due to states like Montana that don’t require declaring party affiliation or those like Washington that record it only at county levels, and solely for presidential primaries.
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