December 04, 2025
Montana voters have long been a focus of political observers searching for the elusive ticket splitter—voters who select candidates from different parties on the same ballot. Although once a potent force aiding Democrats in Montana, ticket splitting is increasingly rare. Past elections saw figures like Steve Bullock and Jon Tester benefiting from such voters, but in recent cycles, their influence has significantly waned.
MTFP estimated ticket splitting using Montana Secretary of State election data. Figures represent the difference between the number of votes cast for the winning presidential candidate in a given precinct and how many votes were cast for the opposing party’s top statewide candidate in that same precinct. Individual voter data is not available. Figures rely on total number of votes for candidates in a specific precinct and use a standard approach to estimating political party crossover.
“We had a rate around 20% for a candidate like Bullock in 2016,” explained Street, a political science professor at Carroll College. “Tester was attracting 20% of Trump voters, dropping to 8% in 2024.”
Analysis by Montana Free Press and election analysts concur with Street’s observations, showing a decline in split-ticket voting. Joe Lamson, a seasoned political mapper, highlights the overlap between down-ballot Democrats and Republican presidential candidates as a key metric.
Republican presidential voters in 2012 and 2016 played a crucial role for Democrats who won by narrow margins. Tester’s 2012 reelection saw him capture 48.6% of the vote against Republican Denny Rehberg’s 44.8%, with Libertarian Dan Cox taking the remainder.
MTFP estimated ticket splitting using Montana Secretary of State election data. Figures represent the difference between the number of votes cast for the winning presidential candidate in a given precinct and how many votes were cast for the opposing party’s top statewide candidate in that same precinct. Individual voter data is not available. Figures rely on total number of votes for candidates in a specific precinct and use a standard approach to estimating political party crossover.
In 2016, Trump and Bullock shared 78,224 voters, with Bullock narrowly defeating Republican Greg Gianforte. By 2020 and 2024, the split wasn’t sufficient for Democratic wins. Sen. Steve Daines was reelected, with the shared ballots between Bullock and Trump drastically reduced compared to 2016. The 2024 election saw just 44,339 split tickets, representing 7.3% of Senate votes, leading to Tim Sheehy’s victory over Tester.
Evan Wilson, a Republican campaign strategist, notes that Montana’s experience mirrors a national decline in split-ticket voting, which peaked in the 1970s. By 2020, this was only 7.1% for Senate races. The trend indicates voters are now more aligned with party politics than individual candidates.
Street suggests Montana’s western U.S. House District, managed by Rep. Ryan Zinke, could become a competitive race in 2026 with Senator Daines also seeking reelection.
The replacements
Gallatin County commissioners are soon to appoint a successor for Rep. Ed Stafman, D-Bozeman, who left office in November to spend time with family. Democrats proposed three candidates to fill the vacancy: JP Pomnichowski, Katie Fire Thunder, and Tanya Reinhardt.
Recently, Yellowstone County commissioners appointed Stacy Zinn to replace Rep. Bill Mercer, R-Billings, who became a federal judge in October.
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