For over thirty years, grades in U.S. schools and colleges have steadily increased. While A’s are more frequent and failures less common, standardized tests like the ACT and NAEP show stagnating or declining student achievement, indicating a disconnect between grades and actual learning.
Does this gap matter? Higher grades might motivate attendance and learning, while harsh grading could deter students. A shift in focus from academic rigor to qualities like attendance and cooperation may be needed.
A new study presents a challenging perspective, showing lenient grading or grade inflation harms students by leading to lower academic and employment outcomes. The study, “Easy A’s, Less Pay: The Long-Term Effects of Grade Inflation,” was presented by economist Jeffrey Denning at Harvard in 2026. Co-authored with RAND, University of Maryland, and University of Georgia researchers, the findings highlight the negative impacts of inflated grades.
Students with lenient grading were less likely to pass future courses, had lower test scores, and were less likely to graduate from high school or college, thereby earning significantly less in the long run. Denning estimates that grade inflation could cost a student $160,000 in lifetime earnings.
Evidence from Diverse Places
The study examined students in Los Angeles and Maryland. Los Angeles data from 2004-2013 showed a predominantly Hispanic student population with low graduation rates. Maryland data from 2013-2023 featured a racially mixed population with high graduation rates and provided insights into college and employment outcomes.
Despite differences, lenient grading consistently resulted in poorer outcomes. Maryland students under lenient teachers were less likely to attend college or be employed, and earned less, reinforcing the negative effects of grade inflation.
When Leniency Helps and When It Doesn’t
While lenient graders who turned failures into passing grades helped at-risk students graduate, it didn’t improve long-term success. General grade inflation, however, had no benefits and hindered future achievements.
Why Good Intentions Backfire
Higher grades can lead students to realize they don’t need to study hard, leaving knowledge gaps that persist. As Denning noted, a “causal chain” of harm results, affecting college and workplace performance.
Don’t Rush to Blame Teachers
Pressure from administrators for “equitable grading” policies often drives grade inflation, rather than individual teachers’ decisions. Lenient graders often excel in non-cognitive skill development, but this doesn’t translate to better life outcomes.
This early research suggests inflated grades harm students. Further studies are needed to explore workplace impacts and gender differences in reaction to grade inflation.
Contact staff writer Jill Barshay at 212-678-3595, jillbarshay.35 on Signal, or barshay@hechingerreport.org.
This story about grade inflation was produced by The Hechinger Report, a nonprofit, independent news organization focused on inequality and innovation in education. Sign up for Proof Points and other Hechinger newsletters.
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