Article Summary –
In November’s elections, while the U.S. leaned Republican, Western North Carolina bucked the trend, with counties like Henderson and Buncombe voting more Democratic. Factors include Hurricane Helene’s impact and demographic shifts. Democrats see potential growth in the region, citing a focus on rural communities.
Democrats Seek Support Nationwide: Western North Carolina Shows Promise
Democrats aiming for increased backing nationwide found limited hope this November, except in Western North Carolina.
Despite a dominant red wave on election night, several counties, like Henderson and Buncombe, shifted 4 points more Democratic in 2024 than in 2020. Others, such as Haywood and Mitchell, also leaned left by 1 to 3 points.
Observers cite Hurricane Helene’s impact on politics or a regional trend favoring Democrats in historically Republican areas.
Vice President Kamala Harris’s gains in Western North Carolina couldn’t counterbalance losses in the east, where traditional Democratic supporters lagged. Yet, North Carolina remained a tightly contested state, with Harris trailing President-elect Donald Trump by just over 3%.
Impact of Hurricane Helene
Western North Carolina’s 2024 story involves Hurricane Helene’s devastation, yet its political impact is unclear. About 20% of North Carolina’s voters reside in counties affected by the federal disaster declaration. Despite infrastructure damage, efficient election measures ensured voter participation.
Remarkably, Western North Carolina achieved near-record 2024 turnout, exceeding the statewide average. Harris outperformed Biden’s margins in disaster-affected counties but lagged elsewhere. She improved her vote by 0.1% in disaster counties while losing 3.4% across the state, contrasting Trump’s national gains.
Experts like Chris Cooper from Western Carolina University suggest the Democratic shift may reflect ongoing regional trends rather than solely the storm’s influence. Observing Republican turnout dips despite overall increases, he notes Helene-hit areas leaned Republican.
NC State’s Andrew Taylor highlights similar patterns in northwest Georgia, another Helene-affected region, noting Harris’s improved performance. He cautions against attributing shifts solely to Helene, given Harris’s similar central North Carolina overperformance.
Democrats Focus on Western North Carolina
Pre-Helene, Democrats saw Western North Carolina as a growth opportunity. Morgan Jackson, a Democratic consultant, believes Republican misinformation on disaster recovery hurt them in the region.
Demographically, Western North Carolina’s retiree and college-educated population may resist Republican extremism. Governor-elect Josh Stein’s performance in the west, including winning Transylvania and Henderson counties, helped disrupt the GOP supermajority in the legislature.
Thomas Mills, a Democratic consultant, attributes shifts to educated migrants. He suggests the trend will continue, influencing exurban counties as newcomers seek affordable alternatives. Carter Wrenn, a Republican strategist, acknowledges the Democrat shift in counties like Buncombe, seeing it as a gradual change.
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