Michigan Faces Economic Uncertainty Ahead of 2026 Elections
The economic landscape in Michigan is on the cusp of change, with potential challenges looming just as the state gears up for its next gubernatorial election in 2026. This comes as the University of Michigan’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE) unveils its latest projections.
According to their forecast, Michigan’s economy is expected to experience a “short-term pause,” which could align closely with the 2026 election cycle. The anticipation is that the economic slowdown will last until 2027, potentially creating an opportunity for the incoming governor to claim credit for an eventual recovery.
While the RSQE’s projection stops short of predicting a full recession, it acknowledges uncertainties in its reliability. A significant factor is the federal government shutdown, which has deprived analysts of essential data. “So, there’s a little bit of flying blind here,” said RSQE Director Gabriel Ehrlich. “We are still missing substantial amounts of data and the reality is some of the data we will never get back just because the government was shut down.”
Without the comprehensive data typically supplied by the federal government, think tanks and universities face challenges in conducting their analyses. This data, regarded as the gold standard, is also crucial for the state’s economic assessments, including employment figures.
Adding to the uncertainty are the effects of federal tariff policies, which have previously been linked to job losses in Michigan’s auto sector. “In the past, we’ve said that the administration’s tariff policy would cost jobs in Michigan’s auto sector,” Ehrlich stated. However, recent policy changes might offer some relief, though it’s too early to determine their full impact.
As Michigan’s political landscape heats up with the approaching elections, candidates will likely debate the causes and solutions for the state’s economic issues. Voters are advised to be cautious, as campaign narratives may oversimplify complex economic dynamics.
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Political Highlights and Legislative Updates
Senator Slotkin in the Spotlight: Michigan U.S. Senator Elissa Slotkin has drawn national attention due to remarks from President Donald Trump. A social media post by Slotkin, advising military personnel to reject illegal orders, was labeled as “sedition” by Trump, who mentioned it’s a crime “punishable by DEATH.” Slotkin responded, emphasizing her commitment to speaking on behalf of her country. Read more about it here.
Privacy for Lawmakers: New legislation passed by the state House aims to protect the home addresses of elected officials, citing safety concerns. Critics argue it could undermine residency requirements. The proposal now awaits consideration by the Senate.
Subpoena Controversy: Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is under scrutiny from the House Oversight Committee, which has issued subpoenas for election-related materials. Benson maintains her office’s compliance while ensuring election security. The ongoing dispute is detailed in Benson’s legal reply.
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Yours in political discussion,
Rick Pluta & Zoe Clark
Co-hosts, It’s Just Politics
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