Alberta’s potential secession from Canada appears increasingly unlikely. In a recent meeting, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney made strides towards reconciliation, reducing previous tensions. Smith encouraged unity, urging Albertans to maintain faith in the process, emphasizing the strength in collaboration.
Despite previously hinting at support for independence, Smith has not formally backed the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP), which claims over 200,000 members advocating for secession. Instead, she promoted legislation making referendums easier to initiate. Montana and Alberta share significant economic ties and resources, including the St. Mary and Milk rivers and Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park. Bilateral trade is crucial, totaling $4.34 billion, according to a 2018 Alberta government document.
University of Calgary professor Aidan Hollis suggested that an Albertan separation might not significantly impact Montana’s economy due to inadequate North-South transportation links and the significant distance to larger U.S. markets. Alberta’s 4.3 million barrels-per-day of crude oil, representing 84% of Canada’s production, primarily flows through other provinces, limiting direct access to American markets.
Michael Nayebi-Oskoui, from Zeihan on Geopolitics, identified several challenges to Alberta’s independence. These include the necessity of forming a federal system, military, and budget. The landlocked nature of Alberta presents diplomatic and commercial obstacles, with 93% of its border alongside Canada.
Premier Smith has shown dissatisfaction with external influences, notably pushing back against former U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments on Canadian statehood. She voiced frustration over ongoing discussions on a potential annexation. Smith continues to oppose federal energy policies from Canada, while APP founder Dennis Modry argues that Ottawa has exploited Alberta’s wealth since its integration into Canada 120 years ago.
Interest in Alberta’s independence remains, with polling indicating that about one-third of Albertans support secession. However, legal challenges have hindered efforts to place an independence referendum on a 2026 ballot. APP’s constitutional proposal is under judicial review, with written arguments due before a November court date.
Despite these hurdles, Modry remains optimistic about Alberta’s future, envisioning a closer relationship with Montana. “We want to help Montana too, and we can do it,” he affirmed.
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