Sorry, Mr. Crosby, dreaming of snow may be your only option this Christmas. The National Weather Service reports a low probability of a white Christmas in Missoula, Billings, Bozeman, and Flathead valleys. However, those in Great Falls and Helena might have a 50/50 chance, while higher elevations and northeastern Montana are more likely to experience snow.
Warm, wet weather patterns driven by southwest winds are the main culprits for the lack of snow, explained Jeff Kitsmiller, a meteorologist stationed in Missoula. “This weather pattern that we’ve been in, where we keep getting a little bit of moisture and then a warm up, is continuing through Christmas,” he stated.
A low-pressure trough off the West Coast is bringing Pacific air over Montana, preventing the arrival of cold Canadian air. While mountain areas may see snow, valleys in the west like Missoula and Kalispell are facing their third consecutive year without snow on Christmas, the longest streak since 1955, according to Kitsmiller.
In Bozeman, any existing snow is expected to melt due to warm conditions, as noted by Matt Ludwig, a lead meteorologist in Great Falls. The southeastern plains are likely to see temperatures in the 50s, possibly breaking Billings’ 2005 Christmas record of 56 degrees, stated Logan Torgerson, a Billings-based meteorologist.
Surprisingly, less than half of Montana is covered by snow, reported Jim Brusda in Great Falls. “Great Falls, Lewistown, Miles City, Billings, Helena, Havre, Cutbank — that whole area is brown,” Brusda remarked.
Northeastern Montana might maintain its snow cover due to low temperatures, but freezing rain is more probable than snow, according to Ben Stoinski, a Glasgow-based meteorologist. Looking ahead, Kitsmiller mentioned that the onset of a traditional winter remains uncertain.
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