Gain insights into governmental happenings with expert analysis from Montana Free Press’ editors. Subscribe to receive the free Capitolized newsletter every Thursday.
December 18, 2025
The Montana Free Press team, including Capitolized, is on a holiday break, pausing the newsletter until Jan. 8. Enjoy your holidays, and we’ll return in the new year.
Montana Democrats believe the state’s western U.S. House district is the most competitive federal race on the 2026 ballot. A poll indicates Ryan Busse, a 2024 Democratic gubernatorial candidate, might unseat Republican U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke.
Tulchin Research, a left-leaning polling firm from San Francisco, released data showing Busse leading Zinke 47% to 43% if the election were held today. Zinke’s reputation is already polarizing, with a 43% favorable and 50% unfavorable rating, according to Tulchin.
Busse noted his awareness of the poll, clarifying that he did not commission it and has no plans to run in 2026. Democrats Russell Cleveland and Matt Rains are actively campaigning. Tulchin last worked on a Montana campaign in 2016 for Democrats Monica Lindeen and Jesse Laslovich.
In 2022 and 2024, Zinke won the district against Democrat Monica Tranel. Busse, in 2024, secured 42.6% of the vote when running for governor. Another online survey is examining potential U.S. Senate matchups, including former Sen. Jon Tester and incumbent Sen. Steve Daines.
The poll includes questions on a sales tax, which insiders believe suggest the poll is Democrat-funded due to the lack of detail, such as replacing property taxes.
A new state representative for Bozeman
Gallatin County Commissioners appointed Katie Fire Thunder, a 25-year-old Democrat, to the Montana Legislature’s vacant House seat. Former representative Ed Stafman resigned in November to focus on family.
In her appeal, Fire Thunder highlighted her upbringing in a low-income single-parent household, where her mother eventually earned a master’s degree. Despite this, she expressed concerns over long-term affordability and housing security.
Fire Thunder, an Oglala Lakota Sioux Tribe member, graduated with a political science degree from Montana State University in 2024. She co-founded Bozeman Tenants United and serves as a legal assistant at the Gallatin County Attorney’s Office.
Her legislative priorities include boosting affordability and housing security, intending to run a competitive campaign for the 2027 session. Montana’s American Indian Caucus celebrated her appointment, aiming for 10 Native American lawmakers, representing 6.7% of Montana’s population.
At a Missoula event honoring former lawmaker Carol Juneau, Pat Sweeney noted that Native representation has grown from four to twelve lawmakers, now reaching thirteen with Fire Thunder’s appointment.
Ellsworth charges
Former state Sen. Jason Ellsworth, previously banned from the Senate floor due to ethics violations, faces criminal charges from the state Department of Justice. READ MORE HERE.
—
Read More Montana News
