This piece is part of MTFP’s 2026 poll week, where we’re exploring data on how Montana voters feel about their elected officials, environmental concerns, immigration enforcement and other issues.
A recent Montana Free Press-Eagleton poll shows tepid voter sentiment towards Montana’s elected officials. Conducted from late December to early January, the poll reveals that no leader received high praise for personal appeal. President Donald Trump emerged as the most favored leader with 50% of respondents giving him a favorable rating, while 44% viewed him unfavorably, falling within the 4.1 percentage point margin of error. Gov. Greg Gianforte, another Republican, garnered a 46% favorable rating against a 40% unfavorable one, slightly outside the margin of error.
Many voters lack familiarity with certain officials. For instance, 40% of voters statewide and 41% in Eastern Montana didn’t know U.S. Rep. Troy Downing or had no opinion, while 18% of Western Montana voters said the same about U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke.
Downing, facing re-election in a GOP-dominant district, secured his U.S. House seat in 2024 with 66% of the vote. He previously served as state auditor, advancing after a crowded primary with 36% support. His general election campaign was low-budget, spending $1.2 million in the primary and just $18,137 in the general election, whereas his Democratic opponent, John Driscoll, spent under $5,000, leading to fewer campaign ads.
Zinke was rated 42% favorable to 41% unfavorable by Western district voters, while Downing received a 28% favorable to 31% unfavorable rating in his district.
Conservatives, making up 48% of respondents, expressed higher favorability for the Republican leadership, whereas 21% of liberals largely disapproved. Moderates, nearly 31% of the sample, did not rate any candidate above 27% favorability.
For example, 87% of conservative respondents expressed a favorable view of Trump — compared to only 2% of liberals.
Moderate voters’ favorability ratings are crucial for understanding appeal to swing voters. Moderates viewed Gianforte unfavorably by a 27%-54% margin, contrasting with the 74%-11% split among conservatives.
All four members of Montana’s congressional delegation, including Sens. Steve Daines and Tim Sheehy, polled worse among women than men. For Zinke, 45% of men gave favorable responses compared to 29% of women. Daines saw a 42% favorability among men versus 34% among women.
Favorability polls don’t equate to job performance evaluations. Typically, favorability reflects personal impressions, while job performance relates to professional competence. Favorability polls are common for comparing incumbents and challengers, who lack equivalent job experience.
The MTFP-Eagleton poll surveyed 801 registered voters via phone and text-to-web from Dec. 23, 2025, to Jan. 3, 2026, with a 4.1% margin of error. The survey period preceded events like immigration protests, Sheehy’s involvement in a congressional hearing altercation, and Trump’s attacks on Iran, which might affect voter perception. The poll also occurred before Zinke and Daines announced they would not seek re-election in March.
This piece is part of the Montana Insights project, which is commissioning rounds of polling to help MTFP readers understand public sentiment on key Montana policy issues. Further findings from the Dec. 2025-Jan. 2026 poll are available here.
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