For many Americans, the idea of missing children brings to mind images on milk cartons or Amber alerts. However, a new report from the Brookings Institution highlights a new concern: children missing from classrooms due to the pandemic. This “lost generation” of students is not attending private schools or being homeschooled; they’re simply not enrolled anywhere, raising questions about their education.
Lost but not found
In 2020, student absenteeism surged post-COVID, with many still not returning. Brookings’ examination of federal data reveals that about 2 million more students, aged 5 to 17, vanished from school rolls during the 2021-22 year, a 450% increase from 2019-20. By 2023-24, the number of unaccounted children remained at 2.1 million, nearly 4% of the 54 million school-aged population in the U.S. The report used enrollment figures and U.S. population data to identify missing children, noting potential discrepancies between U.S. Census and National Center for Education Statistics data.
Stanford University professor Thomas Dee’s analysis of state data in 2023, later reported by the Associated Press, first indicated this increase. The Brookings report solidifies the mystery of the missing students.
Percentage of school-aged children not in traditional public schools, 2016-17 to 2023-24
Private school enrollment flat
Traditional public school enrollment, once stable at 85%, dropped below 80% after the pandemic, with no rebound. Missing children contribute to this decline, but a shift to charter and virtual schools also plays a role. Charter school attendance rose to 6% by 2023-24, while virtual school enrollment nearly doubled from 0.7% to 1.2% and remains high.
Contrary to expectations, private school enrollment has held steady at 9% from 2016-17 to 2023-24, despite voucher programs in 11 states. This aligns with findings from Tulane University, which noted only a 3-4% rise in private enrollments between 2021 and 2024, compared to states without vouchers. A federal tax credit for private school scholarships is expected by 2027, potentially increasing private education enrollment.
Defections from traditional public schools are largest in Black and high-poverty districts
Contrary to assumptions, the largest share of students leaving traditional public schools are from high-poverty districts, not wealthier ones. These students are shifting to charters, virtual schools, specialized institutions, or homeschooling. More than 25% of students in high-poverty areas aren’t in traditional public schools, compared to 17% in low-poverty areas. Predominantly Black districts face the steepest enrollment declines, with a third of students not in traditional public schools, double the rate of their white and Hispanic peers.
Share of student enrollment outside of traditional public schools, by district poverty
Share of students not enrolled in traditional public schools by race and ethnicity
These shifts impact the remaining students in traditional public schools, especially in low-income and Black neighborhoods, resulting in deeper budget cuts.
The demographic timebomb
Even before the pandemic, U.S. schools faced a decline. The current U.S. fertility rate of 1.7 is below the 2.1 needed for population replacement and is expected to fall further. While Brookings predicts continued immigration, it won’t be enough to counter the declining birth rate. Even if enrollment patterns return to pre-pandemic levels, there could be 2.2 million fewer students by 2050. However, if current trends persist, public schools might lose up to 8.5 million students, shrinking from 43.06 million in 2023-24 to potentially 34.57 million by 2050.
The public school landscape is changing due to missing students, choices by Black families and high-poverty districts, and declining birth rates. Prepare for widespread public school closures.
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