U.S. students’ performance on the 2023 international math test shocked education researchers. “It looks like student achievement just fell off a cliff,” said Dan Goldhaber, economist at the American Institutes for Research. Results from the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) reveal persistent and possibly worsening declines in student achievement, echoing similar trends in the 2022 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) and the 2022 Program of International Student Assessment (PISA). This raises concerns about the future of U.S. education.
A “dwindling middle” reflects growing inequality
Top-performing students remained steady since 2019, while those at the 75th percentile showed slight declines. Students at the 50th percentile dropped 18 points, equating to significant months of learning lost. The 25th percentile fell by 29 points, and the bottom 10th percentile by 37 points. Peggy Carr from the National Center for Education Statistics describes a “dwindling middle,” with students being pulled to the bottom.
Basic math benchmarks remain unmet by many American children. In 2023, 13% of fourth graders struggled with basic math operations, up from 7% in 2019. A third of fourth graders couldn’t reach the “intermediate” level, struggling with grade-level math. Contrastingly, countries like England, Germany, and Portugal saw better student performance. View the performance levels of fourth graders in different countries.
The math skills of even the highest scoring eighth graders have deteriorated
Unlike fourth graders, eighth graders saw no widening gaps between top and bottom scores, but the top students’ math scores fell significantly more than those at the bottom. The pandemic’s impact on these students, who were in fifth grade in 2020, suggests that school-based math instruction is crucial, and even affluent families find it hard to compensate for missed classroom learning.
The gender gap re-emerges
The gender gap in math resurfaced in 2023. Boys outscored girls by the widest margin in fourth grade math. Although the gap had closed among eighth graders in 2015, it has reappeared as scores have plummeted.
‘Crazy’ patterns around the world
International math expert William Schmidt observed unprecedented patterns in the 2023 TIMSS results. High-performing nations like Sweden, which kept schools open during the pandemic, improved, while others like Turkey rose unexpectedly. These mixed outcomes make it challenging to draw clear conclusions. Explore fourth grade and eighth grade math rankings.
Calculating the Covid effect
It’s uncertain how much of the decline in U.S. math scores is due to Covid and how much is due to existing issues in American math education. Declines were evident before the pandemic, with fourth-grade scores falling since 2011 and eighth-grade scores since 2015.
Reasons to hope
Though the U.S. lags behind top nations in math rankings, with eighth graders ranking 22nd out of 44 in 2023, there are bright spots. About 360,000 American eighth graders are in the top 10% and score at the most advanced level. Since the TIMSS test was taken in early 2023, 2024 state tests show slight improvements in New York, Florida, and California. Future NAEP results will provide further insights into post-pandemic recovery.
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