The Supreme Court’s 2023 decision to end affirmative action was expected to significantly impact Black and Hispanic enrollment in top U.S. colleges. Contrary to expectations, overall enrollment for these groups increased at four-year universities in fall 2024. However, in highly selective colleges accepting 25% or fewer applicants, Black and Hispanic enrollment decreased or remained flat.
Public flagship universities saw a 6% rise in Black and Hispanic first-year students, yet 20 of the 50 flagships reported stagnant or declining Black student numbers. Similarly, Hispanic enrollment was static or fell at 16 flagships.
A new study indicated that high-scoring minority students were less likely to enroll in highly selective colleges, opting instead for less selective institutions with lower graduation rates. Under President Donald Trump, pressure increased to eliminate race consideration in admissions, leading to over-compliance by some universities.
Highly selective schools saw a large drop in Black first-year students and a smaller decrease for Hispanic students.
- The 85 highly selective universities reported an 18% drop in Black students, with enrollment falling from nearly 10,000 in 2023 to about 8,200.
- 17 colleges saw Black enrollment drop by over 40%, while Hispanic enrollment decreased by 4%, from nearly 20,000 to 19,000 students.
- Asian student enrollment rose by 2%, and white student enrollment increased by 1%.
While many thought white men might gain an advantage under new admissions rules, their numbers remained essentially flat at private, highly selective colleges, while Black and Hispanic women had especially large decreases.
- Black women enrollment at private, selective institutions dropped by 27%, and Hispanic women saw a 12% decrease.
- White male enrollment increased by only 72 students in 2024 compared to the previous year.
With 132,000 first-year students in these colleges, experts warn of reversing gains in Black student enrollment. These institutions’ graduates often secure high-paying, influential careers, representing a significant share of U.S. leaders.
State flagships, selective and otherwise, have a mission to offer state residents a high-quality, affordable education. Their incoming student enrollment figures varied widely.
- Black student enrollment increased by 6% in 2024, but at 20 flagships, numbers declined or remained flat.
- Hispanic enrollment increased by 6.4%, with significant drops in Alabama, California, Iowa, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Despite increased Hispanic enrollment since 2019, a dozen flagships, including Pennsylvania State University and UC Berkeley, reversed this trend.
A huge number of students declined to report their race
The percentage of students not reporting race at selective colleges rose by 64%, with 16 universities accounting for most of this increase. Shaun Harper suggests that the Supreme Court ruling may have signaled students to withhold race information.
Overall, experts caution against drawing conclusions from one year of data. Byeongdon Oh is examining additional factors influencing these enrollment shifts.
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