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January 22, 2026
Independent voters are gaining attention as University of Montana President Seth Bodnar considers a U.S. Senate run without major party ties.
Bodnar shared his upcoming resignation from the university post, sparking speculation about a Senate candidacy following a text from ex-U.S. senator Jon Tester. Tester labeled the party brand “poison,” which fueled media buzz.
A Bodnar spokesperson stated on Jan. 12 that campaign discussions would wait until an official announcement. Two critical deadlines loom for independent candidates: Feb. 17 for candidacy declaration and May 26 for signature collection, as per Montana Secretary of State’s election calendar. Bodnar needs about 12,800 signatures, accounting for any invalid ones.
Dan Osborn’s independent campaign in Nebraska’s 2024 Senate race serves as a model. Osborn bested Republican Deb Fischer in fundraising by millions, with PACs spending $20 million on his campaign. Although Fischer ultimately won, Osborn secured 46.6% of the vote.
Gallup’s data shows an increasing number of independents, with 45% of 13,000 polled in 2025 declaring independence. Millennials and Gen Z lead this trend, identifying as independent at rates of 56% and 54%, respectively.
In Montana, Fabrizio Ward’s 2024 poll for AARP revealed that 38% of 1,064 likely voters identified as independent, higher than Democrat identifiers and nearly equal to Republicans. The 2020 Montana State University-Bozeman poll had similar findings: 31% independent, 33.6% Republican, and 22.6% Democrat. Earlier, Gravis Marketing’s 2017 poll aligned closely with 37% independent.
Ellsworth update
Jason Ellsworth, former Republican state Senate president, faced arraignment for misdemeanor official misconduct in Lewis and Clark County District Court.
Ellsworth allegedly awarded $170,100 in government contracts to an associate without competitive bids, splitting it into two contracts to bypass bidding requirements. He asserts his innocence, pleading not guilty.
This case, initiated by Senate President Matt Regier and Rhonda Knudsen, was referred for prosecution amid controversy during the 2025 Montana Legislature. Judge Christopher Abbott denied Ellsworth’s plea to dismiss based on legislative immunity, though it remains under consideration.
Ellsworth is temporarily barred from his Senate role while awaiting trial, facing up to six months imprisonment if convicted.
Et cetera
More Democrats are entering the U.S. Senate race. Kate McLaughlin announced her candidacy, emphasizing anti-corporate stances on social media and establishing her campaign committee.
Originally from Vermont, McLaughlin, a Montana resident since 2001, promotes a “families first” agenda. Her biography is limited, but she plans a virtual townhall on Feb. 10.
McLaughlin’s entry raises the number of Democratic contenders to five, challenging two-term Republican Sen. Steve Daines. Collectively, they hold less than $27,000 in campaign funds, a stark contrast to the substantial $5.7 million of Matt Rosendale in 2018.
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