U.S. jobs increased by 130,000 in January, driven by growth in health care, social assistance, and construction sectors. However, job growth prospects for 2025 have dimmed, with estimates revised down by over a million jobs, highlighting stagnant employment trends outside recessionary periods. The U.S. added only 181,000 jobs last year, marking one of the lowest increases in recent history.
Job declines were noted during the 2020 pandemic peak and the 2008-2009 Great Recession, but the last comparable low job growth was in 2003, during what economists called a “jobless recovery.” Economist Claudia Sahm, who had anticipated 2025 would see “a year without jobs, but no recession,” acknowledged the significant downward revisions in an X post.
The most significant revision was for January 2025, shifting from a gain of 111,000 jobs to a loss of 48,000. October was the only month with a positive adjustment, with job losses reduced from 173,000 to 140,000. Overall, four months of job losses were reported last year, up from three, and the total U.S. job count was revised down by 1,029,000, dipping below 158.5 million.
State-specific job estimates for January remain unavailable. According to WARN Tracker, approximately 29,000 layoffs have been announced in 2026, including significant numbers in California, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Washington state, and Texas.
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