The Rising Influence of Independent Voters in Arizona’s Midterms
As the November midterms approach, independent voters are set to play a pivotal role, particularly in Arizona’s Maricopa County where they outnumber both Democrats and Republicans among registered voters.
Thom Reilly, co-director of the Center for an Independent and Sustainable Democracy at Arizona State University, highlights the significance of this voting bloc. “Going into this next election, if you don’t have the independent vote, I don’t know how you win in many of the races in Arizona,” Reilly stated. “And then I think that is also the case for many nationally.”
Reilly’s research, initiated in 2022, reveals that 49% of Gen Z voters identified as independent in the 2024 election cycle, indicating a growing trend away from traditional party allegiance.
The increasing disaffection with the two-party system is evident not just in Arizona but across the country. “We’re seeing larger numbers of independents and unaffiliated. And as they age, they don’t seem to be joining a party. And I think that has very significant ramifications to our electoral system,” Reilly explained.
Arizona has long demonstrated a tendency to operate beyond the confines of the established two-party framework. Reilly points out, “Arizona is very interesting because we’ve always kind of had this independent streak,” referencing influential figures such as John McCain and Kyrsten Sinema who have been known to challenge party lines.
This trend has prompted more political candidates to target the independent voter demographic. A notable example is Sen. Mark Kelly’s previous Senate campaign. Reilly observed, “I looked at Kelly’s last Senate campaign, he never said he was a Democrat much. He just kind of appealed to ‘I’m an Arizonan.'”
With the midterms on the horizon, the voting patterns of independents remain challenging to predict. However, historical patterns suggest that the incumbent president’s party typically faces losses during midterm elections. Additionally, issues such as affordability and the economy are priority concerns for independent voters, according to Reilly.
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