In the Western United States, where the threat of avalanches is a constant concern, a new warning is being issued. This time, it is not about the immediate danger of sliding snow, but rather the potential impact of federal staffing cuts on critical forecasting operations. Concerns are mounting that the Trump administration’s decision to reduce the number of meteorologists and environmental scientists could compromise the accuracy of crucial weather predictions that skiers and drivers depend upon.
For those navigating the perilous mountain terrains, the forecasts are essential. Recent recovery efforts near Anchorage, Alaska, highlighted the importance of accurate predictions, as forecasters had warned of a high likelihood of avalanches due to unstable snow layers. This critical information extends its utility beyond recreational use, aiding transportation officials in assessing risks on key roads like those in Colorado, where a vehicle was recently caught in a slide.
Doug Chabot, who has been at the helm of the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center in Montana for over two decades, emphasized the life-saving nature of these forecasts. “We save lives and there are people alive today because of the work we do,” Chabot stated. He expressed concern that indiscriminate funding cuts could severely impact their operations.
‘There’s a lot of pieces that will fall apart’
Avalanches claim approximately 24 lives annually in the U.S., and the ability to predict them relies heavily on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The predictions are crafted using both numerical models and collaborative discussions between avalanche forecasters and meteorologists from the National Weather Service.
Ethan Greene, director of the Colorado Avalanche Information Center, explained, “We have our own numerical model, but we can’t run that without the work that NOAA is doing.” He worries that removing this support would disrupt their forecasting capabilities.
This winter alone, avalanches have resulted in 18 fatalities, predominantly in remote Western regions. NOAA’s weather models support 14 avalanche centers operated by the U.S. Forest Service. Although employees at these centers have so far been spared from cuts, there is concern over future staffing reductions.
Shrinking the federal workforce
The specifics of which roles are being cut at NOAA remain undisclosed. However, former agency leaders have warned that these reductions could have widespread effects on safety measures related to aviation, maritime operations, and severe weather alerts. As part of a broader effort to reduce what President Donald Trump has described as a “bloated and sloppy” federal workforce, the cuts are being executed under the oversight of billionaire Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency.
NOAA, employing around 13,000 individuals, has declined to comment on how these cuts might affect avalanche forecasting. Susan Buchanan, a spokesperson for NOAA, communicated via email, “We are not discussing internal personnel and management matters. We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission.”
While the immediate effects are unclear, Greene anticipates that weakened data from NOAA could result in less reliable forecasts in the future. “We will probably look at the same things that we’re looking at and see that they’re not working as well as they were,” he noted.
Dangerous layers of snow
On a recent day near Leadville, Colorado, Greene demonstrated the intricacies of avalanche forecasting by examining snow crystals in a pit he dug into the snow. “It’s so beautiful,” he commented, observing a layer of ice crystals that could potentially lead to avalanches under the right circumstances.
Alongside these manual surveys, weather data remains a pivotal component in assessing avalanche risks. In Frisco, Colorado, as light snow fell, college students Joseph Burgoyne and Michael Otenbaker prepared to explore the mountain terrain. Burgoyne acknowledged the dangers, stating, “It’s serious terrain, and those reports, they can save lives. Everybody just wants to have a good time. Going fast is fun. Finding deep snow is fun, but there’s serious dangers behind that.”
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