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Montanans are voting at a brisk rate, with forecasts indicating absentee ballots could reach 498,000 by Election Day. Evan Wilson, an election analyst for Republican campaigns, is confident this target will be met. As of Wednesday, 338,832 ballots had been submitted, but Wilson remains optimistic about voter turnout.
Wilson attributes his confidence to “404 voters.” These individuals have consistently voted in federal elections since the 2016 presidential election, and their participation is expected to boost absentee ballot counts significantly.
Analyzing Montana’s voting trends, Wilson notes that most voters today do not identify as native Montanans. In the state’s western U.S. House district, 53% of voters were not residing in Montana when Rep. Ryan Zinke was first elected in 2014.
The 2024 voter turnout is anticipated to mirror 2016 levels, approximately in the mid-70s percentile. The 2020 election saw a record turnout of 81%, driven by COVID-19’s influence on mail-in voting, with 612,075 ballots cast. Notably, 200,000 more absentee ballots were distributed in 2024 compared to 2016.
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