Reaching a record $273 million, Montana’s 2024 U.S. Senate race has become the state’s most costly political contest to date. This historic election between Republican Tim Sheehy and Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester could mark the end of significant federal election spending in Montana. Traditionally, investment from national party committees and political action committees dwindles when a state firmly aligns with a single political party.
Sheehy was elected over Tester on November 5, with the race involving extensive financial commitments from both candidates and independent PACs. Tester’s campaign expenditure reached $81.8 million, surpassing any previous federal candidate spending in Montana, while Sheehy’s spending was $22.2 million. Additional campaign expenditures will be reported next year.
Kyle Kondik from the University of Virginia Center for Politics clarifies, “The parties direct donors to the competitive races, and outside groups target the seats/states that are the most competitive on paper, generally.” Montana’s Senate seats are now held by Republicans, aligning the state as a consistent Republican stronghold at both federal and statewide levels.
Federal election patterns reveal that party-aligned states experience reduced external funding. The Senate race in North Dakota, for example, saw minimal financial backing for Democratic candidate Katrina Christiansen against Republican Kevin Cramer, mirroring Heitkamp’s 2018 race.
Historically, significant PAC spending occurred in competitive states. Missouri’s 2018 race saw immense PAC investment, but recent elections, like Hawley’s victory, show diminished Democratic spending. Similarly, in Rhode Island and Virginia, Republican external funding has waned due to Democratic dominance.
In Montana, Jeremy Johnson of Carroll College notes that the western congressional district might attract future outside funding. However, state races may see less external support unless Democrats show competitiveness, emphasizing grassroots efforts.
Montana Democrats, led by Robyn Driscoll, are concentrating on local elections, fostering a “blue bench” strategy for local government candidates. This includes increased voter engagement and canvassing efforts, as demonstrated by the significant turnout increase in Glacier County in 2022.
U.S. Senate races have played a pivotal role in Montana’s political landscape since 2000. Key elections, such as the close 2006 race between Tester and Burns, showed increased PAC involvement. Democrats previously gained ground by appealing to rural voters, a strategy that saw success in both gubernatorial and presidential elections during the early 2000s.
In 2012, Tester was challenged by Denny Rehberg resulting in a $48 million race after the Citizens United ruling, which allowed for unrestricted campaign spending. Tester’s victories in subsequent elections reflected significant financial involvement from Super PACs.
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