Aaron Flint and Sam Forstag are neck and neck in Montana’s Western District House race, reveals a Montana Free Press-Rutgers Eagleton poll. With Montana’s most competitive federal contests underway, Flint, a Republican, captured 42% of the vote, while Forstag, a Democrat, garnered 41%. Libertarian Nick Sheedy pulled 5% support.
Conducted from August 27 to September 7, the poll has a 6% margin of error. It found 9% of voters preferred other candidates, with 2% abstaining. The Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University conducted the survey. Voting for Montana’s general election runs from October 6 to November 3.
The Western District covers 16 Montana counties, including Democratic-heavy Missoula and Gallatin and Republican-leaning Flathead County. Incumbent Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke, who first appeared on the ballot in 2022, is not seeking re-election due to health issues. If the close polling reflects the final outcome, this could be Montana’s tightest U.S. House race since 1992.
Poll results showed half of the women favored Forstag, while 39% backed Flint, with Sheedy receiving 2%. Among men, 45% supported Flint, 32% chose Forstag, and 8% opted for Sheedy. Flint’s popularity grows with age, from 34% among 18-44-year-olds to 51% among those 65 and older. Meanwhile, Forstag’s strongest backing came from the 18-44 age group, with 49% support. Sheedy’s support remained consistent at 5% across all ages.
Familiarity with Flint revealed a split opinion; 31% viewed him favorably, 32% unfavorably, and 19% had no opinion. Forstag led in favorability with 41% positive views and 19% negative. The Montana Insights Poll invited registered voters via text to an online survey, using a probability-based method to ensure a representative sample and weighted results to reflect the state’s demographics.
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