Arizona’s political landscape is set for an intriguing showdown, as just a few pivotal races in the upcoming November elections will shape the control of the state legislature. Despite having 30 legislative districts, the spotlight is on a select number of truly competitive races.
In a new initiative, the Arizona Election Draft, KJZZ’s political correspondents, Wayne Schutsky and Camryn Sanchez, along with Politics Desk editor Ben Giles, delve into these key races, highlighting the districts that could tip the balance of power.
Arizona’s Competitive Districts
BEN GILES: Welcome to Prickly, a podcast from KJZZ’s politics desk.
WAYNE SCHUTSKY: Thanks for tuning in. I’m Wayne Schutsky.
CAMRYN SANCHEZ: And I’m Camryn Sanchez.
BEN GILES: As Arizona’s primary elections conclude, we’re now looking at the few competitive districts that will shape the future of the Arizona House and Senate. Historically, Democrats have struggled to gain control, but this year presents a new opportunity. Let’s dive into our first pick, brought to us by Camryn Sanchez.
Legislative District 4
CAMRYN SANCHEZ: I’m focusing on Legislative District 4, which includes Scottsdale, Phoenix, and Paradise Valley. Currently dominated by Republicans, this district has previously elected Democrats, suggesting potential shifts in both chambers. The race features incumbents Matt Gress and Pamela Carter against Democrats Karen Gresham and first-time candidate Tammy Caputi. Gresham seeks a rematch, while Caputi, a moderate pro-business Democrat, has shown fundraising prowess despite setbacks at the Scottsdale City Council.
In the Senate, incumbent Carine Werner faces Democrat Aaron Lieberman, a former lawmaker. Werner’s focus on child welfare and fraud has sparked debate, while Lieberman brings experience from a similar district.
BEN GILES: Camryn, what makes this district competitive for Democrats?
CAMRYN SANCHEZ: Moderate Democrats tend to succeed here, as 33% of voters are independents, providing a swing vote potential for candidates willing to work across party lines.
Legislative District 2
WAYNE SCHUTSKY: Sticking close to District 4, let’s look at LD2, covering North-Central and Northwest Phoenix. The district sees Republican Shawnna Bolick in the Senate, with a House split between Democrat Stephanie Simacek and Republican Justin Wilmeth. The entry of write-in Republican Paul Carver changes the dynamics, offering two Republican options against one Democrat, echoing last election’s single-shot campaign strategy.
BEN GILES: Wayne, how does this strategy work for Democrats?
WAYNE SCHUTSKY: By consolidating Democratic votes behind one candidate, they increase the odds of a win, especially in a district where independents are the largest voting bloc.
Legislative District 13
CAMRYN SANCHEZ: Moving to Chandler in District 13, represented by three Republicans but considered competitive. Notably, Representative Julie Willoughby aims to shift to the Senate, replacing Senator J.D. Mesnard. Democrat Kristie O’Brien, a local attorney, challenges her. The House race sees former Chandler Mayor Kevin Hartke and Janet Weninger, both Republicans, against Democrats Raquel Armstrong and Jacob Weinberg.
BEN GILES: How are Democrats viewing Chandler’s changes?
CAMRYN SANCHEZ: Chandler’s history of split representation gives Democrats hope, as moderate policies could sway the independent voters.
Legislative District 9
WAYNE SCHUTSKY: LD9 in West Mesa has a Democratic delegation but faces a challenge with untested candidates like Senator Kiana Sears, who replaced Eva Burch. Republicans run Bradley Bettencourt using a single-shot strategy, hoping to gain ground in a district where independents are crucial.
BEN GILES: Do Democrats feel secure here?
WAYNE SCHUTSKY: Confidence is high as the area trends Democratic, but the independent voter majority adds unpredictability.
Additional Districts
In Legislative District 23, Democrats hold a slight edge, with Senator Brian Fernandez likely secure. However, the House race sees incumbents Michele Pena and Mariana Sandoval against new challengers.
District 17, covering Tucson suburbs, could see shifts due to far-right Republican candidates, offering openings for Democrats like Kevin Volk and Holly Lyon.
Finally, District 16, despite Republican dominance, faces the potential for change with the presence of competitive Democrat Julia Ramirez Gusse challenging incumbents.
BEN GILES: Our inaugural Arizona Election Draft highlights the key districts that could reshape Arizona’s political future. Stay tuned for more insights as the general election approaches.
CAMRYN SANCHEZ: Thank you for joining this episode of Prickly from KJZZ’s politics desk. Catch our ongoing coverage on 91.5 FM or visit kjzz.org.
WAYNE SCHUTSKY: Subscribe to Prickly wherever you get your podcasts.
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