Catron County, New Mexico, is a glimpse into the future of an aging America. It boasts stunning landscapes that attract retirees, but faces significant challenges in providing medical care. With few young residents, the county struggles with a limited tax base and workforce. This scenario mirrors a national trend, as the U.S. anticipates a demographic shift by 2034, where older adults could outnumber children, and Social Security funds may be depleted by 2032.
“For quality healthcare, if you need even an X-ray, you are driving an hour and a half,” said Deborah Mahler, Catron County Manager. She highlights the difficulty of accessing services with 900 miles of impassable dirt roads requiring high-profile, four-wheel-drive vehicles. Although hospital systems provide shuttle services, the county aims to expand medical transportation and attract a local practice, despite a limited tax base.
Catron County, bordering Arizona, offers attractions like Cosmic Campground for stargazers and the Catwalk National Recreation Trail. However, the abundance of parks limits space for industries that could provide jobs and support the elderly population.
The U.S. Census Bureau’s latest estimates reveal that 17 states now have more residents over 65 than under 18, up from 13 in 2024 and five in 2020. New Mexico, Michigan, South Carolina, and Wisconsin are recent additions, reflecting mid-2025 ages. Some areas like Sumter County, Florida, already experience a significant imbalance, with nearly eight older adults per child.
States are enacting measures to support their aging populations. Wisconsin has passed laws protecting against elder scams and easing transitions from hospital to rehabilitation. New Mexico introduced a Medigap law, allowing Medicare users to change plans without penalty. South Carolina’s Senate passed a bill for larger property tax breaks, though it stalled in the House. Michigan is developing a plan for older residents, with a report due by July 1.
In 2020, only five states had more seniors than children: Florida, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and West Virginia. The list now includes Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Montana, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island, alongside the newly added states in 2025.
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