Montana farmers are concerned about the ongoing trade war affecting U.S. tariffs on farm products with China, Canada, and Mexico. Wheat and lentil exports are expected to encounter more challenging markets due to tariffs impacting trade terms in Canada and China. This situation mirrors the 2018 tariff conflict with China, which affected wheat values as displaced U.S. corn and soybeans disrupted demand. That year, federal subsidies to Montana farmers increased by $140 million to cover trade-related losses.
Montana ranks third in U.S. wheat production, with 5.2 million acres planted and over $1 billion in sales in most recent years, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. About 80% of Montana wheat is historically exported, mainly to Asia-Pacific markets. The state leads in lentil production, planting 720,000 acres in 2024 and generating $226 million in sales. Lentil production values have tripled over the last decade, per the USDA. Canada is a favored buyer for Montana lentil farmers.
Montana Farmers Union President Walt Schweitzer noted that the trade war would differ from 2018 due to the lasting effects of the previous tariff fight, which altered U.S.-China trade. “China got busy and started building ports, railroads and distribution networks in our competitors’ backyard,” Schweitzer said. The first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic complicated trade further, coinciding with extreme droughts in Montana.
“What happened is we lost our average market and so we had a lot of strong, stranded commodities with no home,” Schweitzer said. “And of course China had found other sources for corn and soybeans. Now, we’re really sitting on a surplus we shouldn’t have.” Tariffs remain a complex issue, with the farmers union opposing unrestricted free trade and advocating for targeted tariffs to protect U.S. producers. The National Farmers Union supported Trump’s 2017 withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, designed to counter China’s growing Asian trade influence.
Schweitzer stated that farmers union members support using targeted tariffs as a response to destabilizing imported commodities. However, the National Farmers Union cautioned that new tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico products could lead to economic uncertainty. Economists with the pro-trade American Farm Bureau Federation warned that these countries are major markets for U.S. farm products, accounting for $83.3 billion in 2024 purchases. Canada’s 25% retaliatory tariff on U.S. products, targeting canola and rice, and China’s tariffs threatening $12.8 billion in U.S. soybean sales, add complexity.
China has never been a major buyer of U.S. wheat, according to Gordon Stoner, a Montana farmer involved with the National Association of Wheat Growers. Stoner is particularly concerned about Montana lentil exports to Canada. “What happens is they import our product and they sell it to India,” Stoner said. “For those of us who live along the border, we can haul into Canada and get a good price.”
Lentils are not yet part of Canada’s initial tariffs on U.S. farm products, according to Canadian trade data. However, future tariffs might include them. Governor Greg Gianforte and Sen. Steve Daines have voiced different perspectives on the strategy behind the new tariffs. Gianforte sees them as a tactic to combat fentanyl and improve trade fairness, while Daines, currently in China for trade talks, supports expanding market access for Montana ag producers.
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