In the Montana Western District Democratic primary, Ryan Busse emerges as the frontrunner in favorability and familiarity. This is based on a new Montana Free Press-Eagleton poll. Among Republicans, Christi Jacobsen leads. The poll captures insights from registered voters in the state.
Busse, who previously ran for governor, won 43% of the votes in the 16 counties of the Western District in 2024 but secured only 38.6% statewide. Jacobsen, Montana’s secretary of state, garnered 61.4% of votes, surpassing Donald Trump’s performance. The poll, collected in late April and early May, shows 32% view Busse favorably, whereas 27% view Jacobsen favorably.
Among Democrats, 75% favor Busse, while Sam Forstag and Russell Cleveland have 55% and 47% favorability, respectively. Jacobsen holds a 41% favorability among Republicans, with Aaron Flint trailing closely at 40%. Flint, a conservative radio host, leads in first-quarter fundraising and boasts President Trump’s endorsement. This could influence Republican voters, 55% of whom favor Trump-backed candidates. Al ‘Doc’ Olszewski, a former state legislator, holds a 17% favorability overall and 29% among Republicans.
Forstag spearheads campaign spending in the Democratic race. However, 53% of voters couldn’t identify him. Cleveland is known to 58% and, alongside Matt Rains, receives no PAC contributions, with Rains unrecognized by 60% of respondents.
The poll, by Rutgers-New Brunswick Eagleton Institute of Politics, has a margin of error of +/-4.3%. Libertarian Nick Sheedy and independent Kimberly Persico were not included in voter queries.
The MTFP–Eagleton poll surveyed 815 registered Montana voters via text invitation for an online survey, conducted from April 29, 2025, to May 7, 2026. The sample was weighted to reflect Montana’s voter demographics. Margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points. Detailed methodology is available here.
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