U.S. Rep. Troy Downing, who secured a decisive win in Montana’s Eastern Congressional district in 2024, currently holds a 34% approval rating while 40% disapprove, according to a recent Montana Free Press-Eagleton poll. Many voters in the Eastern Congressional District remain unfamiliar with Democratic contenders Brian Miller and Sam Lux, who are vying to challenge Downing. Notably, only 13% of voters are unaware of Downing himself.
Jeremy Johnson, a political scientist at Carroll College, noted the low name recognition of the Democrats is typical at this stage. He highlighted the need for the primary winner to increase visibility for a chance in the general election.
“That’s the challenge for any candidate: to show donors they can run a competitive race,” Johnson remarked.
Johnson commented that the district was designed as a “safe Republican district.”
Downing’s approval numbers surprised Johnson, noting the Republican’s previous 30-point victory. Johnson attributed this to dissatisfaction with President Trump’s policies, the Iran conflict, and rising living costs. “What it really suggests is people are not approving of how the Trump administration is handling its job right now,” Johnson explained.
The poll also showed Montana, which supported Trump with a 20-point lead in 2024, is divided on his presidency and the Iran war.
Sam Lux, a farrier from Great Falls, expressed enthusiasm at Downing’s low approval. “This gives me a bit of a confidence boost,” Lux said. Both Lux and Miller, an attorney from Helena, oppose U.S. military involvement in Iran. “We need to get out of the Middle East,” Miller stated.
Despite low recognition, both candidates remain unfazed. “We’ll just keep doing what we’re doing,” Miller said. “We have a lot of work ahead, whether it’s me or Sam.” Montana’s U.S. Senate candidates face similar challenges, with many voters unaware of their names.
Keegan Bittner, Downing’s spokesperson, declined to comment on the poll results. Johnson cautioned against drawing significant conclusions from early data. “We don’t even have primary election results yet,” he stated.
The MTFP–Eagleton poll surveyed registered voters in Montana through an online survey from April 29, 2025, to May 7, 2026. The results were statistically adjusted to reflect Montana’s voter demographics. The survey’s overall margin of error is +/- 4.3%; for Eastern District voters, it is +/- 5.9%. Detailed methodology is available here.
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