Nathan Smith, who has already sent three kids to college, notes the unprecedented influx of recruiting materials for his fourth child, now a high school senior. “If you put the other three together and multiplied it by four, that’s how much mail she’s gotten,” said Smith, who is also the chair of the Northern Kentucky University Board of Regents. Colleges are casting wider nets as enrollment declines, attempting to appeal to more students.
As college enrollment drops—by over two million in the last decade—institutions are not just broadening their outreach. For the first time in years, the college admission process is becoming easier. New research from the American Enterprise Institute reveals that colleges are admitting more applicants than they did 20 years ago. The median acceptance rate for bachelor’s degree programs rose by 7.6 percentage points from 2012 to 2022.
Previously, the competition for college spots had intensified, sparking fears among students and families about rejection. Low acceptance rates at prestigious institutions amplified these concerns. However, a Pew Research Center survey found that 45% of young adults believe it’s harder now to get into college compared to their parents’ generation, although 87% of nonprofit four-year colleges accepted at least half of their applicants in 2022, up from 80% in 2012.
“It’s really a small proportion that are accepting only single-digit proportions of their applicants,” said Preston Cooper, senior fellow at AEI. This trend suggests more students will secure spots at decent colleges. According to National Association for College Admission Counseling data, 78% of first-year applicants to public and 70% to private institutions are admitted, reflecting an upward trend from 2014.
The ease of college acceptance is influenced by declining enrollment and fewer high school graduates attending college immediately. Freshman enrollment dropped by 5% this fall, and the percentage of high school graduates going straight to college fell from 70% in 2015 to 62% in 2022. As applications decrease, colleges admit more students, a trend expected to continue with the declining number of 18-year-olds.
However, many universities are increasing early decision admissions to secure students, a practice that primarily benefits higher-income families. Early decision often requires acceptance before the May 1 deadline, excluding those unfamiliar with the process or unable to commit without knowing financial aid details. Institutions like the University of Pennsylvania and Duke University admit over half of their students this way, according to Education Reform Now.
The perception of hypercompetitive admissions has historically benefited colleges, enhancing their exclusivity appeal. This perception fuels industries around private college counseling and test prep. “Colleges do want to cultivate this idea that they’re prestigious and selective,” said Cooper. Yet, only 33 institutions nationwide had acceptance rates of 10% or lower, with most colleges becoming easier to get into.
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