Article Summary –
More than two-thirds of economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal believe that Donald Trump’s policy proposals would lead to higher inflation and greater national debt compared to Kamala Harris’s plans, with Harris’s policies focusing on lowering costs through tax credits, prescription drug cost caps, and anti-price gouging measures. Trump’s proposals, which include repealing certain policies and imposing new tariffs, could increase costs for American families and are projected by the Peterson Institute to potentially cause inflation rates between 6% and 9.3% by 2028 while reducing employment and national income. Analyses from institutions like Goldman Sachs and the Penn Wharton Budget Model suggest that Harris’s plans would likely enhance economic growth and benefit lower- and middle-income families more than Trump’s, whose proposals would primarily favor wealthier individuals.
Over two-thirds of economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal suggest former President Donald Trump’s policy proposals could lead to higher inflation compared to Vice President Kamala Harris’ plans. A similar proportion believes his policies would swell the national debt.
From Oct. 4 to 8, the Journal polled 50 economists regarding the economic plans of both presidential candidates. When asked whose policies might spur higher inflation, 68% pointed to Trump, 12% to Harris, while 28% saw no significant difference.
Inflation spiked during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and following Russia’s Ukraine invasion in 2022 but has since returned to near pre-pandemic levels. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Oct. 10 that consumer prices rose only 0.2% monthly for the past three months and 2.4% annually, the lowest since February 2021. These declines follow Democratic-led laws championed by President Joe Biden and Harris to lower costs and strengthen supply chains.
Trump suggests repealing some of these policies along with introducing new tariffs on imports. The Center for American Progress Action Fund, a progressive organization, estimates his plans would cost an American family $3,900 more annually.
Harris has proposed measures to reduce costs further, including tax credits for parents and first-time homeowners and protections against food price hikes.
The survey also revealed that 65% of economists believe Trump’s plans would widen the federal budget gap. Despite Trump’s 2016 campaign promise to balance the budget and slash national debt, it soared by nearly $8 trillion during his tenure.
Economists are not alone in their view that Trump’s strategies could worsen economic conditions.
The Peterson Institute for International Economics analysis from September indicated Trump’s proposals might drive inflation to 6%-9.3% by 2028, lowering employment and national income.
In a September analysis, Goldman Sachs economists found Harris’ plans could enhance economic growth in 2025-2026, whereas Trump’s would shrink GDP, hinder job growth, and increase core inflation.
An August simulation by the Penn Wharton Budget Model revealed that Harris’ proposals would contribute much less to the national debt than Trump’s and would better support low- and middle-income families, while Trump’s plans would predominantly benefit the wealthiest.
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