Kurt Alme holds an 8-point advantage over Seth Bodnar in the four-way Senate race in Montana, as revealed by the Montana Free Press-Rutgers Eagleton poll. Alani Bankhead and Kyle Austin lag significantly behind the frontrunners.
Alme secured 38% support from 845 registered voters between Aug. 27 and Sept. 7, showing a slight decrease from earlier polling this May. Meanwhile, independent Bodnar saw a rise in backing, reaching 30%, marking a 7-point increase since spring.
Voters were asked which candidate they would pick if the Senate election were today. The polling, conducted by Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Politics, had a 4.2% margin of error.
Bankhead’s support dropped to 16%, while Austin fell to 5%. Another 6% favored “someone else,” and 5% wouldn’t vote. Jami Woodman, a write-in candidate, wasn’t polled. Over a third of undecided voters remained uncommitted.
Bodnar is the choice of 53% of Democrats, highlighting the internal party conflict, as prominent Democrats urged Bankhead to withdraw. Former Senators Baucus and Tester, along with ex-Montana Democratic Party chair Nancy Keenan, believe the Democratic nominee can’t win.
Independent voters, who make up 44% of Montana’s electorate, lean towards Bodnar, preferring him 38% to 18% for Bankhead. As Democrats represent only about 20% of voters, they rely more on independents than Republicans do. Alme maintained a 25% share among independents.
Alme retained 78% of Republican Tim Sheehy’s 2024 supporters. Bodnar gained 7% of Sheehy’s voters and Austin 5%. Among Bodnar’s supporters, 37% didn’t vote in the 2024 Senate race. Only a third of Bankhead’s supporters voted for Tester.
Alme is favored by 68% of Trump’s 2024 voters, while 10% intend to support Bodnar. Older voters, especially those 65 and above, strongly back Alme with a 51% support rate. Bodnar enjoys consistent backing across all age groups, while Bankhead finds her strongest support among 18 to 34-year-olds.
Alme also leads among both genders, gaining 42% of male and 34% of female votes. Bodnar holds 29% among men and 31% among women. Bankhead trails at 10% among men and 23% among women. Libertarian Austin remains in single digits across demographics.
The poll utilized a probability-based method from the state’s registered voter file, ensuring each voter had a known chance of selection. Results were weighted to reflect Montana’s voter demographics, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
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