Dry Winter Heightens Wildfire Risks in the U.S. Southwest and Beyond

As winter seemingly bypassed many U.S. regions, from the Southwest to the Midwest and even parts of the East Coast, the absence of cold weather has set the stage for a potentially hazardous wildfire season.

Communities across these areas noted record-low winter precipitation, and the resulting dry vegetation is a significant concern for fire risks. Over 1,000 firefighters recently attended the annual wildfire academy in Arizona, anticipating a busy season due to forecasts of warm, dry conditions, especially in the Southwest.

Roy Hall from the Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management highlighted the impact of this weather, noting, “We would be remiss to not acknowledge that changes how we might see fire behavior come out of the blocks at the beginning and through fire season.”

Understanding the Drought

According to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, winter precipitation in the U.S. was nearly an inch below average, making it the third driest winter on record. Flagstaff, Arizona, typically a snowy retreat, ended its winter with a significant snowfall deficit despite a major March storm. In New Mexico, Albuquerque recorded just 0.12 inches of precipitation over three months, marking its driest winter.

Implications for Wildfire Threats

The southwestern and midwestern U.S. have been under red flag warnings, where dry, windy conditions significantly heighten wildfire risks. Oklahoma and other regions have already faced destructive fires. The lack of snowpack in the West raises concerns about the potential for rapid fire spread without adequate moisture to slow it.

While parts of California have received some relief from rainfall, southern regions remain in drought. The latest fire outlook indicates elevated fire potential in several U.S. regions, including southern Alaska and parts of the Appalachians, with California expected to see increased risks by June.

Community Preparedness Efforts

In response to the early fires in Los Angeles, various Western communities have initiated outreach to educate residents on wildfire risks. San Juan County, New Mexico, for example, has already faced numerous bushfires, prompting local firefighting efforts.

Urban areas like Phoenix are strategizing resource allocation to quickly manage fires, while Scottsdale is considering volunteer initiatives to aid in fire prevention. Christopher Reed from Arizona’s forestry department emphasizes the importance of individual preparedness: “We always say Day 1 of firefighting is now.”