With early voting set to begin in May ahead of the June 2 primary, Ryan Busse is the frontrunner in the Democratic primary for Montana’s 1st Congressional District.
The poll shows Busse holding a 15-point lead over his nearest rival, Russell Cleveland. He’s gained rapid support through his policy agenda which focuses on improving the everyday lives of Montanans.
Affordability
At the heart of Busse’s campaign is a simple argument: Montana is facing an affordability crisis.
It’s a message landing in fertile ground. In a September 2025 poll, 98% of Montanans said families are struggling with everyday costs right now. Housing costs have surged while wages have lagged behind. Parents described childcare as hard to find and unaffordable, with 43% of Montanans currently worried about childcare costs.
Busse says the current tax code is rigged against working people. He has called for a system that requires, in his words, “billionaire hedge fund managers to pay at least as much as fishing guides, waitresses, and snowplow drivers.”
He also plans to fight tariffs that drive up costs, take on monopolies like the big meatpackers, and expand access to childcare, and hold drug companies accountable for sky-high prices.
Busse has pledged to oppose any legislation he believes would widen the gap between the wealthy and everyone else.
Health Care
Busse has been equally forceful on health care, calling for universal coverage and taking direct aim at policy changes he says have hiked Affordable Care Act costs for tens of thousands of Montanans while gutting Medicaid protections.
Federal Medicaid cuts are already forcing states to confront the potential closure of rural hospitals, and Montana is no exception. Busse has been vocal about who he believes will bear the brunt of those closures: Native communities and small towns where a Medicaid-funded facility is often the only health care option for miles.
Data Centers and Artificial Intelligence
If affordability and health care are familiar campaign themes, Busse’s third major focus is decidedly Montana-specific: a fast-moving push to build large-scale AI data centers across the state.
At least 11 entities are reportedly in talks with NorthWestern Energy about data center development, and the planned facilities statewide could demand as much as 1,000 megawatts of power — a massive surge in energy consumption for a state that prides itself on affordable rates and open spaces. At a candidate forum in Butte, Busse put it bluntly: “The reason data centers are rushing here is because they believe we have cheap power, open land, and insufficient regulation to stop them from moving fast.”
His concerns go beyond rate hikes. Busse has warned that these facilities — built to power artificial intelligence tools — could deliver few permanent jobs while accelerating technology that, in his view, threatens to displace the very workers Montana’s economy depends on. It’s a message resonating across party lines. Rural communities, regardless of political affiliation, are asking hard questions about what rapid data center growth could mean for their electricity bills and water supplies.
Polling and the Primary Field
Busse’s 15-point lead in the independent poll reflects an advantage he’s been cultivating since his 2024 run for governor, when he captured more than 42 percent of the vote in the counties that now make up the western district.
He’s not running unopposed, however. Russell Cleveland entered the race earlier than any other candidate and has logged multiple rounds through the district, building genuine grassroots support in communities where he’s spent considerable time. Matt Rains brings an agricultural background to the race and makes the case that Democrats must find their footing again with rural Montana — a constituency the party has long struggled to hold. Samuel Forstag has also been active on the trail throughout the primary.
