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As Montana’s population more than doubled over the past 40 years, registered voters increased by 175%, according to state election data.
New voters lean more Republican than Democratic, based on data from the information service L2, which tracks constituents, voters, and consumers.
From October 2008 to May 2024, for every two Democrats moving to Montana, slightly over three Republicans did the same. L2 data shows that 13,527 Republican-identifiable voters relocated to Big Sky County, compared to 8,548 Democratic-identifiable newcomers. An additional 12,953 newcomers were nonpartisan.
The term “identifiable” is crucial in these findings. Seven other states, like Montana, do not collect voter party information, including neighboring North Dakota. Washington state records participation in partisan presidential primaries but purges the data after a few months, retaining it only at the county level, according to L2.
Washington frequently appears in migration data as a former home state for new Montanans. Ten states have party information practices similar to Washington’s.
In 2022, an estimated 5,225 new Montanans who previously lived in Washington formed the largest group of newcomers from any state, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
The next three states left behind by Montana newcomers in 2022 were California (4,660), Oregon (3,691), and Colorado (3,440). These states register voters by party and report the data. In total, Montana welcomed 48,165 newcomers that year. Thirty-one states collect and report voter party information, L2 confirmed.
Paul Westcott of L2 explained how analysts identify movers by comparing current voter files to national change-of-address data from the U.S. Postal Service. When a voter moves within a state, L2 records the relocation. For out-of-state moves, analysts wait until the voter appears in the new state’s voter file before updating the records.
Campaign operatives have long attempted to gauge the political leanings of newcomers to Montana. Interest peaked after Montana’s 2020 U.S. Senate election, where polls showed incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines with a slim lead over Democratic challenger Steve Bullock. Daines won by 10 percentage points, surprising many.
Public polls on Montana’s upcoming U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and Republican Tim Sheehy show the number of independent voters on par with or greater than the number of Democrats.
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