On a muggy August afternoon in the Flathead Valley, just hours after 8,000 people packed a rally for Republican U.S. Senate candidate Tim Sheehy headlined by Donald Trump in Bozeman, around 150 people gathered comfortably at Glacier Bank Park for an event with Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio. Jordan and his host, Rep. Ryan Zinke, spoke about unseating three-term Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester and helping Trump win back the White House against Vice President Kamala Harris. Over 90 minutes, they discussed topics from transgender athletes to securing the southern border and beating the liberal “cancel culture mob.”
“Our vote will determine the fate of this country because this district will decide whether we keep the House and whether or not we send a SEAL to the Senate,” Zinke said, referring to Sheehy’s Navy SEAL background. The House holds 220 Republican representatives and 211 Democrats, while the Senate has 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.
At the event, signs were for Zinke, though he barely mentioned his own reelection and didn’t name his opponent, Democrat Monica Tranel. Two years ago, Zinke beat Tranel for Montana’s western congressional seat after the state regained this seat through redistricting. This year’s race is different due to the high-profile Senate race at the top of the Montana ticket.
“It’s really been under the radar,” said Robert Saldin, a political science professor at the University of Montana, about the western district House race. “That’s probably the reality of having one of the most important Senate races in the country.”
ROUND ONE
Zinke and Tranel are well-known in Montana politics. Zinke, moving right throughout his career, born in Bozeman and raised in Whitefish, served as a U.S. Navy SEAL from 1986 to 2008. After retiring, he was elected to the Montana Senate and later the U.S. House, before being appointed Secretary of the Interior by Trump, where his tenure ended amid multiple ethics investigations.
Tranel, born in Wyoming and raised in eastern Montana, transitioned from Republican to Democrat. She graduated from Gonzaga University and law school at Rutgers University, competing in the 1996 and 2000 Olympics. She developed a legal career in telecommunications and energy, notably challenging NorthWestern Energy. After multiple runs for office, she decided to retry for the House seat in 2024.
‘WE RAN OUT OF TIME’
Tranel, who lost to Zinke by four points in 2022, decided to run again soon after the election, announcing her candidacy in July 2023. Saying she “ran out of time” in 2022, she noted that her campaign built momentum in the final weeks despite fewer resources than Zinke. According to the Federal Election Commission, Tranel raised $3.1 million through June 30, while Zinke raised $6.7 million.
Tranel, focusing on policy, especially around the housing crisis, often criticizes Zinke, particularly on his residency. “I want to send Ryan back to Santa Barbara for good,” she said. Her campaign targets rising housing costs and pledges to update tax codes and encourage the construction of mobile and tiny homes. She also promises to fight corporate money in politics and expand broadband in rural areas.
‘THIS ISN’T MY FIRST RODEO’
When Republicans regained control of the House in 2023, expectations were low due to divided government. However, the 118th Congress became the least productive in modern history. Zinke blamed the pandemic and some Congress members’ focus on personal branding. Despite the dysfunction, Zinke said Montana fared well, citing his efforts to secure more than $31.5 million in funding for various projects.
Looking ahead, Zinke hopes the 119th Congress will be more productive, especially if Republicans secure the House, Senate, and White House. Despite not mentioning his opponent at his August event, Zinke said he’s not taking the race for granted. “Montana’s first district is not an easy ride,” he said, “but this isn’t my first rodeo.”
One contentious issue is short-term rentals. Tranel’s campaign accused Zinke of exacerbating the housing crisis through his Airbnb property in Whitefish, which Zinke defended. The Zinke campaign also highlighted Tranel’s previous ownership of Airbnb stock, which Tranel did not report during this campaign cycle.
The campaign has also touched on other issues. Zinke’s first major ad claimed Tranel supports transgender women in women’s sports, based on a Fox News report, which Tranel later called misleading.
THE FINAL PUSH
With less than two months until election day, Zinke remains the favorite. Political observers note the overall rightward shift in Montana politics and Zinke’s incumbency and name recognition. An AARP poll showed Zinke leading Tranel 49% to 43% among likely voters. A wild card in the race is Libertarian candidate Dennis Hayes, who could potentially chip away at Zinke’s support. However, Hayes has done little campaigning this year.
Two years ago, Montana’s newly drawn western district was considered competitive for either party. The 2022 race saw more media attention, debates, and attacks. In 2024, with the high-profile Senate race dominating the political landscape, the House race has been quieter. Zinke noted, “It is kinda nice not being at the top of the ticket.”
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