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September 27, 2024
NEW NEIGHBORS MORE RED THAN BLUE
As Montana’s population more than doubled over the last 40 years, registered voters increased 175%, according to state election data. New Republican voters outpace Democrats, per data service L2, which sells constituent and voter information.
Since October 2008, for every two Democrats moving to Montana, slightly more than three Republicans did, according to L2. The data shows 13,527 registered Republicans compared to 8,548 Democrats relocating. An additional 12,953 newcomers were nonpartisan.
The key term here is “identifiable.” Seven states, including Montana, don’t collect party information, while 31 states do. Washington state, a common origin for new Montanans, records this data only temporarily.
Paul Westcott of L2 explains that analysts track movers by comparing current voter files to U.S. Postal Service change-of-address data. This method identifies relocations within and outside states, integrating previous state data when a voter re-registers.
Campaign operatives have been analyzing new Montana voters’ political leanings for years. A Republican veteran noted interest surged after the 2020 U.S. Senate election, where Republican Sen. Steve Daines defeated Democratic challenger Steve Bullock by 10 points.
Likewise, current polls show the independent voter count rivals Democrats in the race between incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and Republican Tim Sheehy.
CAMPAIGN CASES CLOSED
Montana’s gubernatorial election has led to multiple complaints to the Montana Commissioner of Political Practices (COPP). These involve incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte and Democratic challenger Ryan Busse.
ABOUT THOSE TAX REBATE MAILERS
Busse’s team filed an ethics complaint against Gianforte and campaign manager Jake Eaton, who owns Ultra Graphics, the printer of tax rebate mailers. The mailers, informing residents of property tax rebates, were alleged to be political.
Commissioner Chris Gallus dismissed the complaint, stating, “The activity described is permitted as an official duty and Governor Gianforte did not use or permit the use of government resources or funds to support his campaign or election.”
FIXABLE AND DISMISSABLE
Gallus also ruled on a Montana Republican Party complaint against Busse, citing errors in his campaign finance reports. Several discrepancies were noted, including unreported debts and expenses.
The Montana GOP also alleged misuse of funds in hiring Busse’s wife’s company. Gallus dismissed this as “frivolous,” affirming that Montana law doesn’t prohibit using a vendor with a financial interest, provided there’s no discount.
Further complaints included insufficient detail on payments to vendors. Gallus concluded the Busse campaign had reported expenses correctly.
Gallus found five issues in favor of Busse and noted four violations that won’t be prosecuted due to corrective actions taken by Busse.
ON BACKGROUND
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