Tariff-Induced Trade War with China Threatens U.S. Farmers, Study Finds

U.S. tariffs could slash soybean exports to China by 52% and corn by 84%, hurting farmers, warns a new trade study.
Farmers would suffer from trade wars • Daily Montanan

The National Corn Growers Association and the American Soybean Association have highlighted the potential damage of a trade war with China on U.S. farmers. A study based on 2018 tariff data and former President Trump’s economic plans reveals significant risks. Soybean exports to China could drop nearly 52%, while corn exports face an 84% decrease. Representatives from agricultural sectors gathered in a webinar to discuss these findings.

Participants urged rural voters to reconsider supporting Trump due to his proposed tariffs. Patty Judge, a former Iowa Secretary of Agriculture, emphasized the severe impact on the heartland, stating, “elections have consequences.” The study released on October 15 by the World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services predicts a new trade war would quickly diminish U.S. corn and soybean exports, replaced by Argentina and Brazil’s supply.

The report outlines two scenarios: a reinstatement of 2018 tariffs by China and a 60% tariff on U.S. goods in response to Trump’s 60% tariff plan. This could result in $3.6 billion to $5.9 billion losses for soybean farmers, and $0.9 billion to $1.4 billion for corn farmers annually. The 2018 trade war’s “devastating effects” on farmers were noted, with $23 billion in relief provided to affected farmers by the former administration.

‘Still rebuilding’

Agricultural leaders at the webinar frequently referred to the challenges from 2018 tariffs. Denny Wolff mentioned the “double whammy” of increased import costs and reduced export values. Gary Wertish, president of the Minnesota Farmers Union, said the agriculture economy is still recovering. Judge described potential new tariffs as “catastrophic” for Iowa due to its significant agricultural output. “We saw what happened in 2018 and we simply cannot do it again,” she stated.

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative reported Iowa as the second-largest agricultural export state in 2022, with $16.5 billion in exports. Brent Swart from the Iowa Soybean Association emphasized trade’s importance, noting the financial strain from the U.S.-China trade dispute. A Trump campaign spokesperson cited past policies like the USMCA aimed at boosting agricultural trade.

Additionally, the Trump campaign criticized Biden-Harris climate policies for allegedly harming farm communities. Republican National Committee spokesperson Anna Kelly asserted farmers’ support for Trump, stating, “President Trump stood up to China.” Meanwhile, many webinar participants showed support for Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Judge expressed confidence in a Harris-Walz administration’s agricultural policies.

This article was originally produced by the Iowa Capital Dispatch, part of States Newsroom.


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